Summer Weather 2023 – The third consecutive La Niña that brought widespread rain and flooding to eastern Australia in 2022 is likely to end by next February, models show
La Niña conditions helped lead to flooding and record rainfall in many parts of Australia, including Sydney, which had its wettest year on record. Photo: Bianca de Marchi/EPA
Summer Weather 2023
Sunny skies may finally be on the horizon, with Bureau of Meteorology models suggesting an end to the La Niña weather pattern early next year.
La Niña Is Strengthening, Potential Winter 2022 2023 Impacts
Prolonged wet weather across many parts of Australia has been fueled by three consecutive years of La Niña events, which have resulted in increased rainfall across northern and eastern Australia.
The bureau’s latest update, released Tuesday, predicts a return to the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a cycle in which winds and sea surface temperatures fluctuate across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The majority of BoM models show a “return to ENSO-neutral in early 2023”.
@BOM_au predicts La Nina to be flat and Pacific conditions to return to neutral conditions by late 2022-early 2023… https://t.co/889mzq9GSh pic.twitter.com/Kw1fN3EEhE— Peter Hunnam (@p_hannam) October 25, 2022
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Assoc. Shane McGregor, from Monash University and the Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said a normal La Niña or El Niño event would usually peak around Christmas and decay rapidly in the following months.
BoM models show that Pacific sea surface temperatures will no longer meet the La Niña threshold by February. “That suggests … the event could be a bit earlier than the usual December-January [period],” McGregor said.
During La Niña, strong trade winds blow westward across the Pacific Ocean. Warm surface water is pushed towards Asia and the sea north of Australia, resulting in more rainfall than normal in the north-east of the country. The weather event is having the opposite effect across the Pacific, with 60% of the US declared a designated drought zone last week.
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In El Niño, the trade winds weaken or shift, leading to warmer surface waters in the central Pacific and less moisture north of Australia. El Niño events are often associated with severe wildfire seasons, although the 2019-2020 Black Summer wildfires occurred in a neutral year.
Historically, about half of all years are classified as ENSO neutral, a phase that marks the transition between La Niña and El Niño. “Typically there are two neutral years for every El Niño and La Niña,” McGregor said.
“Very often, an El Niño [directly] transitions into a La Niña, but La Niñas usually don’t transition directly into an El Niño,” McGregor said. “If you look at the statistics of past events, it suggests that we are more likely to have a neutral event next year.
La Nina Has Returned
Until ENSO enters a neutral phase, “we’re still expecting more rain than normal, unfortunately,” he added.
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Another climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole, is also predicted to transition into a neutral phase. The IOD has been negative for the past two years—the first time two consecutive such events have occurred since reliable records began in 1960.
Negative IOD is usually associated with above average spring rainfall for much of central and eastern Australia. Extremely positive YOR boosted 2019-2020 wildfires.
“Models show that the negative IOD is likely to persist until late spring before dissipating rapidly,” the BoM said. “When La Niña and negative IOD conditions combine, the likelihood of above-average rainfall over Australia increases further, particularly for the eastern half of the continent.
Almanac Predicts ‘frigid Temperatures,’ Snow Nationwide This Winter
Australia’s climate warmed by about 1.47 degrees Celsius between 1910 and 2020. The BoM also noted “a trend towards more precipitation from short-duration high-intensity rainfall events, particularly over northern Australia”. MARYLAND – After a cold spell in October, it’s a reminder that winter is fast approaching and before we know it, December 1 , the first day of meteorological winter, is here.
Some may be wondering what this winter will be like. Are we expecting colder and snowy weather? Will it be soft and dry?
Well, the Climate Prediction Center has released its outlook for the upcoming winter season, and it looks like we’re leaning more on the mild side.
Will The 2022/2023 Winter Season Be Above Or Below Average?
They have Maryland under the 33-40% above normal category, which means we have a slightly better chance of seeing a mild winter for our temperatures.
In terms of precipitation, we are under equal chance, which means that we have a split chance of either a wet or a dry winter.
This is consistent with what La Niña winters are, where we tend to stay warmer and around normal for our precipitation due to the jet stream pattern that usually rises north before reaching Maryland.
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This doesn’t mean we won’t see snow as temperatures drop and a cold enough air mass can move across the state.
We’ll continue to monitor what this winter holds for us and update you on any potentially dangerous winter weather conditions as the season progresses! A “triple dip La Niña” appears to be in store for the upcoming winter season, and even better, current sea surface temperatures indicate a strong La Niña event. This article explains exactly what La Niña is and what a significant La Niña episode the 2022-2023 ski season could mean.
The term La Niña refers to a major ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon associated with periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Warmer Weather Is Coming Later This Week!
La Niña represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle and means ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.
1) Average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean were at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than the previous month’s average.
2) An average anomaly of at least -0.5°C (-0.9°F) persists or is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.
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Confidence is growing that this winter will see a third straight La Niña – something meteorologists have dubbed a ‘La Niña triple dip’.
The La Niña pattern persisted through the summer of 2022, and long-term models predicted a higher-than-average chance of La Niña continuing into the winter of 2022-2023 before possibly weakening in the spring of 2023.
The weekly Nino-3.4 regional index (sea surface temperature in the East-Central Pacific) is up to -1.2°C. This is the coldest August weekly SST anomaly since 2010.
Where Is Hot In January 2023
The first source of uncertainty is how accurately we predict La Niña or El Niño. La Niña is expected to continue, with the chances of La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% to 60% in the December 2022 to February 2023 time frame.
The second source of uncertainty is the atmospheric response to La Niña or El Niño. That is, when La Niña occurs, does it always affect North American weather in the same way?
To determine how La Niña affects North American weather, we can look at snowfall records during recent La Niña events and compare them to a typical year.
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The map below shows winter snowfall during seven significant La Niña episodes. The lower the number, the stronger La Niña. Blue dots are above average, white dots are average, and orange dots are below average snow.
La Nina effects appear to see much of the western United States receive average to above average snowfall during these significant events. Again, the pattern doesn’t hold 100% of the time.
As mentioned above, the Nino-3.4 region index anomaly has been reduced to -1.2 °C since August 21, 2022, the coldest August weekly sea surface temperature anomaly since 2010 (-1 .17 ° in 2010 versus 1.2 °C ) in 2022).
A Deep Dive Into Maine’s Winter Forecast
Since the last significant La Niña episode occurred in 2010, let’s have some fun looking back at the 2010-2011 winter season snowfall at ski resorts across the western United States, which was a landmark year for many areas.
The 2010-2011 ski season is interesting to look at as a potential comparison for a significant La Niña episode, but keep in mind that no matter how deep or light the winter is in general, when it comes to skiing, it’s all about timing.
Book a trip 7-10 days in advance and for a general area that looks stormy, increase your chances of achieving deep powder days.
Long Range Weather Forecast For 2022
If you’re ready to upgrade your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to All-Access. Whether you’re chasing powder, looking for sunny days or something in between, we’ve got you covered with our custom snow forecasts, local ‘Daily Snow’ forecasts and high-resolution weather maps.
But don’t just take my word for it…” Any weather app can give an average forecast for a mountain town, but only a good idea of