Spring Weather 2023 – Featured video from the 2022-2023 Winter Outlook, which provides seasonal predictions of temperature, precipitation and drought. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. (Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data)
This year, La Niña is back for a third straight winter, bringing warmer-than-average temperatures to the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, according to the U.S. The Winter Outlook was released today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National. Meteorological Service. From December 2022 to February 2023, predict drier than average conditions in the South with wetter than average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies, and Pacific Northwest.
Spring Weather 2023
“The hard-working forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal and short-term forecasts throughout the year,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “The new supercomputers allow us to develop even better and more detailed forecasting capabilities, which we will implement in the coming years.”
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Forecasters, in conjunction with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor ongoing and extreme drought conditions that have persisted in the western United States since late 2020, as well as parts of the central United States. United States where historic low tide conditions currently exist.
“Drought now prevails in about 59% of the country, but parts of the western United States and southern Great Plains will continue to be hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, director of the Center’s Operational Forecasting Branch. Climate forecast. . “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, the drought could also expand to the Gulf Coast.”
The 2022-2023 US Winter Outlook temperature map shows the greatest chance for warmer than average conditions in western Alaska, and the Great Central Basin and Southwest extending across the Southern Plains. Under normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and Alaska Panhandle. ()
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US winter forecast map. The US 2022-2023 precipitation forecast shows wetter than average conditions are more likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Drier than average conditions are forecast for parts of California, the Southwest, southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. ()
This seasonal U.S. drought map for November 2022 through January 2023 predicts persistent and widespread drought across much of the West, Great Basin, and central-southern Great Plains. ()
Seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above, near, or below average, and how drought is expected to change over the coming months. The forecast does not anticipate seasonal snow accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
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The Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook every month. The next update will be available on November 17th.
Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the coming months and minimize the impact of weather on lives and livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-related hazards. Empowering people with actionable forecasts, seasonal predictions and winter weather safety tips is key to the effort to “build a more weather and climate ready nation.” : Free Covid-19 Testing The Way of Water 30 gifts under $30
Contributing editor Eric Mack covers space, science, climate change and all things futuristic. His encrypted email for tips is [email protected].
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This story is part of Zero , a series that describes the effects of climate change and explores what is being done about the problem.
I have lived in the high desert of the southwestern United States most of my life, mostly in New Mexico and Colorado. In those four decades, I’ve never seen it as dry as 2022. In all that time, I’ve never seen it as wet as 2022 either.
In northern New Mexico, the year began with months of unseasonable heat, dryness and extreme wind that led to the largest wildfire of the year in the lower 48 states. It burned 340,000 hectares of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and destroyed or damaged more than a thousand homes and other structures.
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Then, in mid-June, the annual monsoon rains thankfully arrived to extinguish the fires. But they stayed for a couple more months and dumped almost twice as much moisture as the year before (or the year before). In fact, we still saw some monsoon patterns several weeks later than normal.
There is a term for this remarkably rapid change in weather patterns that a growing number of scientists have begun to use, both in the mainstream media and in academic publications: weather whiplash.
“The big change in weather that you experienced in New Mexico this summer is a perfect example,” said Jennifer Francis, acting deputy director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.
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Francis is the lead author of a paper published in September in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on measuring weather whiplash events, which can be loosely defined as sudden swings in weather conditions from one extreme to the other.
At my home in the high desert this year, those swings translated into a fountain full of smoke, heat, wind, and the first emergency warning system warning I got warning me to pull off the road immediately because of an impending dust storm. In July the scene changed to lots of rain, mud and more warnings, this time flood warnings.
“Weather patterns ‘get stuck’ more often, resulting in persistent heat waves, droughts, stormy periods and even cold spells,” Francis explained via email.
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Their work shows that all this stagnant weather is related to the rapid warming of the Arctic, which affects the jet stream and in turn affects the climate further south.
“These stuck weather patterns sometimes come to an abrupt end by suddenly changing into a completely different pattern. This is weather whiplash.”
The term has become increasingly used in climate science circles in recent years, but Francis points to other examples of the phenomenon appearing fully and soberly only in 2022.
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A July heat wave immediately followed exceptionally wet and cool weather in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in June. This change was most dramatic in the Yellowstone region, where historic flooding in the first month of summer caught many by surprise, claiming hundreds of homes but, somewhat miraculously, no lives. Soon after, temperatures rose several degrees above average and the region dried out.
Earlier this year, the reverse occurred in Texas, where a 67-day stretch of dry, warm winter in Dallas was followed by the city’s heaviest rain in 100 years, leading to flash flooding and a state of emergency declaration by the governor
From late March to early June, much of northern New Mexico saw no measurable precipitation for a stretch of more than 70 days. Even for the current era, which many scientists suspect is the start of a megadrought in the southwestern United States, it is unusually dry.
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This dryness, along with unusual heat and often extreme winds, fanned the embers of two controlled fires in the Santa Fe National Forest that had smoldered in secret for months. Two fires come to life and eventually merge to form the 340,000-acre Calf Canyon-Hermit’s Peak fire complex.
The inferno burned homes, ranches, businesses and livestock, but it claimed no lives, at least not immediately. Tens of thousands were evacuated from nearby towns and villages for weeks as the fire consumed some of the state’s most rugged and beautiful terrain for more than two months.
I visited some of the affected communities to witness the total disruption and devastation as I waited to see if the flames would continue to approach my own community near Taos, less than 20 miles from the fire’s northwest edge.
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The view of the huge plume of smoke from the Eremit’s Peak-Calf Canyon fire from my house on May 10. Erik Mack
For weeks it looked as if a nuclear bomb had been detonated over the top of the mountains near my house. A plume of mushroom smoke from the fire rose into the atmosphere, a constant reminder of a valley’s impending doom.
Sometimes the wind shifted and blew all that smoke at us. It was possible to see this coming almost an hour in advance as a brown stream of smog would suddenly obscure the mountains. When it finally reached us, eyes watered, lungs burned, and everything we wore or carried smelled of barbecue. Minutes later the sun would be blotted out on a sunny day. Then all the days were sunny.
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My family retreated inside whenever the smoke came, of course. Then, in early June, another fire started on the opposite side of our community where the megafire was burning. We are surrounded. No matter where the wind blew, there was a good chance it would blow smoke
