Fall Forecast 2023

Fall Forecast 2023 – Videos of the 2022-2023 Winter Forecasts, which provide seasonal forecasts for temperature, precipitation and drought. This video and associated map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. (Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data)

This year, La Niña is back for a third straight winter, bringing warmer-than-average temperatures to the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, according to the U.S. winter forecast released today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. service. Beginning in December 2022 through February 2023, it predicts drier-than-average conditions in the South with wetter-than-average conditions for the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest regions .

Fall Forecast 2023

Fall Forecast 2023

“The hard-working forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal and short-term forecasts throughout the year,” said Dr. Michael Farrar, director of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. “new supercomputers allow us to develop even better, more detailed forecasting capabilities that we will introduce in the coming years.”

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Forecasters, in cooperation with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to observe extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have been present in the western United States since late 2020, as well as parts of the central United States, where currently there are historically low water conditions right now.

Fall Forecast 2023

“Drought conditions are already in place across approximately 59 percent of the country, but parts of the western U.S. and southern Great Plains will continue to be hardest hit this winter,” said John Gottschalk, chief of the Center’s Operational Forecasting Division. climate forecasts. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions could extend to the Gulf Coast.”

The 2022-2023 US winter forecast temperature map shows the best chance for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska and the Central Great Basin and Southwest, extending across the Southern Plains. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and Alaska Panhandle. ()

Fall Forecast 2023

Lip Color Trend Forecast 2023/2024

The 2022-2023 US winter precipitation map shows that wetter than average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Drier than average conditions are forecast for parts of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. ()

This seasonal U.S. drought forecast map for November 2022 through January 2023 predicts continued widespread drought across much of the West, Great Basin, and central to southern Great Plains. ()

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Fall Forecast 2023

Seasonal forecasts provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation will be above, near, or below average and how drought conditions are projected to change in the coming months. The forecast does not predict a seasonal accumulation of snowfall, as snow forecasts cannot usually be predicted more than a week in advance.

Noaa & Climate Predication Center Release 2022 2023 Seasonal Winter Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center updates its quarterly forecast every month. The next update will be available on November 17th.

Fall Forecast 2023

Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to happen in the coming months and minimize the impact of weather on lives and livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and environmental.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-related hazards. Empowering people with actionable forecasts, seasonal forecasts and winter safety tips is critical to our efforts to build a more weather and climate ready nation. Snowfall forecasts for the winter of 2022/2023 are coming together as the cold weather season is about to begin. From the United States to Canada and across Europe, we’ll take a look at the latest snowfall forecasts and trends, expanding our view of an early spring.

First we need to look at the world’s leading weather factor for the upcoming winter season, La Nina. What does the latest ocean data show and what effect has it had on temperature and snowfall patterns in the past?

Fall Forecast 2023

Long Range Weather Forecast For 2022

But the main focus is on global long-range weather forecasting systems. From this you will see the snowfall forecasts for the upcoming winter and how they change as the winter approaches and the accuracy of the forecast also increases.

An important global weather factor is ENSO. This is the region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in which warm and cold phases alternate. There is usually a phase change every 1-3 years.

Fall Forecast 2023

The cold phase is called La Niña, and the warm phase is called El Niño. We are currently in the La Nina phase, entering its third and final year and likely to be replaced by a warm phase for 2023/2024.

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The phases of ENSO significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. The figure below shows the cold phase circulation and its ocean-atmosphere connection.

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Fall Forecast 2023

ENSO thus significantly influences tropical precipitation and pressure patterns, strongly altering the atmosphere–ocean feedback system. ENSO’s influence propagates globally through this feedback system, creating different winter temperatures and snowfall patterns.

Below we have the latest surface analysis of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Cold ocean anomalies extend across much of the tropical Pacific. This cold ocean phase is entering its final phase and will dissipate as we enter spring.

Fall Forecast 2023

Breaking: Scwf 2022 2023 Seasonal Weather Forecast Released; Not A Normal La Nina

La Nina usually forms during strong trade winds, which can tell us a lot about the state of the global circulation. Thus, we can use these anomalies as an “indicator” to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal evolution.

Below you can see the progression of some historic multi-year La Nina episodes, with only two events previously having a third-year event. Three events were neutral in the third year and three phases switched to El Niño in the third season.

Fall Forecast 2023

No cold event has reached year 4 in the known record, so we are expected to see the last phase of La Nina for this season for some time.

Autumn/winter 2023: Color Forecast

Below we have the official NOAA CPC probabilistic forecast chart showing the long-range forecast for the central ENSO region. As forecast, La Nina conditions will continue through the winter, but will weaken. La Niña will begin in the spring, increasing the chance of a warm phase (El Niño) in late 2023.

Fall Forecast 2023

To better understand ENSO changes, we’ve created a video showing La Nina anomalies from summer to fall.

The video below shows the developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific as we move deeper into fall, driven by strong easterly trade winds.

Fall Forecast 2023

La Niña Is Strengthening, Potential Winter 2022 2023 Impacts

So what exactly does this mean for winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? We’ll take a closer look at the weather impacts La Nina typically has over North America, which is more directly affected.

Europe is not known to have specific/direct impacts as it is too far from the source region. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an impact.

Fall Forecast 2023

La Nina changes weather globally, but aside from the direct impact on North America, places like Europe have many other factors in circulation before any La Nina influence spreads that far.

Winter Weather Forecast For 2022

Typically, the first impact of these ocean anomalies can be seen in changing jet stream patterns. A jet stream is a large and powerful air current (wind) about 8-11 km (5-7 mi) above sea level.

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Fall Forecast 2023

Historically, a strong blocking high pressure system in the North Pacific is the most typical effect of the cold ENSO phase. This causes the polar jet stream to be redirected down over the northern United States, with cold air in its wake.

The figure below shows the La Niña winter average pressure pattern over the past 40 years. You can see a strong high pressure system in the North Pacific and an area of ​​low pressure over Canada and the northern United States. Images by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

Fall Forecast 2023

Preliminary 2022 2023 Winter Forecast: Colder Than Last Year, Snowier?

The circulation of a strong high pressure system promotes the development of a low pressure region over Alaska and western Canada. It moves the jet stream down between the two high pressure systems marked by the blue lines above.

Looking at the temperature analysis for the same winters, we can see a cold anomaly below the jet stream in western Canada and the northern United States. This is usually at the western and southern boundaries of low pressure systems where the northerly and northwesterly flow brings in cold air from the north.

Fall Forecast 2023

Warmer than normal weather and mild winters generally develop in the southwestern states, eastern states, and eastern Canada. The most dynamic winter weather typically occurs between warm and cold anomalies in the Midwest and central states.

Wgsn’s Fall/winter 23 24 Color Forecast Points To An Energy Shift

In terms of precipitation, La Niña winters tend to be drier in the southern United States. Drier conditions are also developing in the southeastern United States as La Nina produces a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture over the southern United States. More precipitation is typical for the northwestern states, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast.

Fall Forecast 2023

You can see this jet stream redirection in the image below. The figure shows the mean position of the jet stream during La Niña winters and the resulting weather patterns that develop over the United States and Canada in a cold ENSO winter.

The displaced jet stream brings cooler temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions to the northern and northwestern United States. Warmer and drier winter weather prevails in the southern states.

Fall Forecast 2023

Pantone Color Institute Unveil Their Trend Forecast For London Fashion Week Autumn/winter 2022/2023 — Texintel

But what does this mean for snowfall

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