Fall 2023 Weather Forecast – The 2022/2023 winter snow forecasts show a global climate signature of La Nina, now active for the third consecutive year. From Canada to the United States and across the Atlantic to Europe, we’ll look at snowfall forecasts and trends for the coming winter.
First, we’ll look at the main global weather driver in the coming weather seasons, La Nina. What does the latest ocean analysis data show, and what are the prospects?
Fall 2023 Weather Forecast
Then, looking at the global long-term weather forecast systems and analysis of historical data, you will see the first snowfall forecasts for the coming winter.
Long Range Forecast Archives
ENSO is short for “El Niño Southern Oscillation”. This region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean alternates between warm and cold phases. Usually there is a change of degree about every 1-3 years.
The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. We are currently in a La Nina phase, and in its 3rd year, a rare occurrence.
ENSO significantly affects tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. We observe large pressure changes in the tropics with each new stage of development. These changes affect the circulation around the world with some delay.
Official Winter Outlook
In this way, ENSO greatly affects precipitation and tropical pressure patterns. In this way, the atmosphere-ocean feedback system changes significantly. Through this feedback system, ENSO’s influence spreads globally, particularly winter temperatures and snowfall patterns.
Below is our latest surface analysis of the tropical Pacific. Cold ocean anomalies cover most of the ENSO regions in the tropical Pacific. This is the currently active La Nina, currently strengthening.
La Nina usually occurs during strong trade winds, which can tell us a lot about the state of global circulation. In this way we can use these anomalies as an “indicator” to know the current state of the global climate system.
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Below you will see the last two years of ocean anomalies in the ENSO region. You may see the first La Nina event in 2020 and the second year La Nina in late 2021. A third year event is now developing and is expected to mature in the winter of 2022/2023.
Below is an analysis/forecast chart from the ECMWF showing the long range forecast of the central ENSO region. As predicted, La Nina conditions will last through the fall and winter. La Nina is expected to weaken early next year, with a possible warm phase later in the year.
To better understand ENSO changes, we’ve put together a video showing the La Nina anomaly from late spring to summer.
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The video below shows the cold ocean anomalies developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as we get closer to the start of autumn.
So what exactly does this mean for winter weather patterns and the potential for snowfall? First, we need to take a closer look at how La Nina typically affects North America.
Europe is known not to be specifically/directly affected because it is too far from the source. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an impact.
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La Nina changes the weather around the world, but aside from the direct impact on North America, there are many other factors involved in places like Europe before La Nina’s direct impact becomes this far reaching.
Usually, the first impact of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the changing jet stream. The jet stream is a large and powerful current of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude.
Historically, the usual effect of the cold phase of ENSO (La Nina) is a strong blocking high pressure system in the North Pacific. That usually drives the white jet stream down over the northern United States.
What Can We Expect This Winter 2022 2023
The image below shows the mean pressure pattern during the recent La Nina winter. We may see a strong high pressure system in the North Pacific and an area of low pressure over Canada and the northern United States. Images from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL).
The spread of the strong high pressure system promotes the development of a low pressure region over Alaska and western Canada. It curved the jet stream down between the two pressure systems, marked by the blue lines.
You can see that jet stream diversion in the image below. The image shows the average location of the jet stream during a La Nina winter and the resulting weather patterns over the United States and Canada.
Accuweather Us Fall Forecast 2022
The displaced jet stream will bring cooler temperatures and storms from the polar regions down in the northern and northwestern United States and warmer and drier weather in the southern parts.
Looking at the temperature analysis for the same winters above, we can see the cold anomaly area under the jet stream in western Canada and the northwestern United States. A cool zone stretches across the Midwest and down into the South Central Plains.
Warmer than normal weather and mild winters are common across the southwestern United States, eastern United States, and Canada. The biggest winter weather “battle zones” tend to be in the Midwest and central United States.
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La Nina winters are usually very dry over the southwestern United States and Canada. Dry conditions are also found in the southeastern United States, as La Nina means a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture to the east. More precipitation is typical over the northwestern United States, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast.
But speaking of precipitation, what about snow? The data shows that the La Nina jet stream is changing the possibility of snowfall across North America as the pressure systems take a different path.
Colder air is easily accessible to the northern United States, increasing the possibility of snowfall when moisture is available. In the graph below from NOAA Climate. You can see the average snowfall pattern for weak La Nina years, as expected this winter season.
St. Louis Winter Weather, Snowfall Outlook 2022 23
In addition to the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we may see more snow potential across the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.
But now we’ll look at some early winter snowfall forecasts from current forecast models. We now know what to expect from historical data.
The format will be simple. We will look at two well-established seasonal weather forecasting systems. First there is the ECMWF, and then there is the UKMO.
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You see the average snowfall forecast for the period November-December-January, and then we do a monthly breakdown. The monthly forecast contains a lot of data that does not reflect the overall seasonal average.
In this first snowfall forecast, we are not looking at February yet, as some of the data is not yet available. And besides, February is also far. But we will include it in all future updates.
First, if you look at the average picture for Europe, you can see a fairly weak snow forecast. Much of the continent is forecast to have less snow than normal.
Weather Authority 2022 2023 Winter Outlook
The November forecast shows that there could be more snow in Central Europe. But most other parts are forecast with less snow than usual for this month.
The December snowfall forecast shows stronger negative anomalies. The pattern appears to be under the influence of a high pressure system as the forecast does not allow for many widespread snow situations.
In the January forecast, there is no real improvement. Most of Europe is predicted to have less snow by mid-winter, except in some smaller areas.
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Starting with the average picture for the US and Canada, we may see more snow across western Canada and the eastern US. Surprisingly, we may see fewer snow forecasts across the western United States.
The November snowfall forecast shows slightly increased snowfall potential over the higher elevations of the Western United States and Canada. However, late fall saw less snow across much of central and eastern Canada and the Midwestern United States.
The December snowfall forecast shows potential increases across the south-central United States, extending across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. This forecast shows less snow across the western United States.
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January snowfall forecasts show an even stronger pattern, with more snow in the same regions than the previous month. But the lack of snow that falls across the upper Midwest and northwestern United States in a La Nina winter is surprising. This will likely be fixed in future runs.
Long range weather forecasting is by no means easy. We only look at trends and probabilities, but still, diversity is key. The more forecast data you can look at, the better idea you’ll have of where the target is. Or you can be more confused.
Since you can’t rely on just one forecast model, we decided to use the UKMO long range forecast system in conjunction with the ECMWF. It has been developed by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, from which the initials UKMO come.
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First, if you look at the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snow forecast, which is identical to the ECMWF. Much of the continent is forecast to have less snow than normal. UKMO uses a different parameter than the ECMWF but also has a direct correlation with snow.
The November forecast suggests some possibilities in northern Europe. But on the contrary, the rest will be
